I am  always amazed to see the media and the average citizen buy the hype on something new and the natural gas frenzy is no different..This story  shows where the 100 year figure comes from and why it is far from correct.   One would think seeing all the money being sunk in natural gas production and export  would lead one to believe that the 100 number is on the money.

Never believing in any number published and promoted by the government  I started researching  how the numbers were  come to ..What I found along the way indicated that the number might be radically overplayed.  A typical gas well is productive for about 5 years and after the first year production drops dramatically.  Given this fact you realize that to maintain a production level you have to drill like crazy to keep up production.

A lot of little wild cat companies attack new fields hoping that some big company will buy up their claims , that is before they run out of money. At present all gas wells are loosing money the price of gas is so low that production costs more than it returns.

Export facilities are being built to handle shipment to places that pay more for their gas.  Lots of bucks are being flung at these ventures leading one to think they might know what they are doing..  Maybe they do but the research says they are wrong.  Using logical numbers as little as 11 years of gas to a high of 21 years might actually exist.

Meantime solar and wind production has not produced the desired outcome and production has fallen off.  The problem that wind and solar has that it may produce when it is not needed and storage facilities have not come on line to even out the distribution of that power.

Nuclear plant  construction has fallen off supposedly because of costs of production and even running plants are being shut down because of maintenance costs, of course the Japanese meltdown  hasn’t helped the nuclear case. Coal plants are being shut down and everybody is betting on gas.  Never a good idea to put your eggs in one basket and that appears to be what they are doing.

The other problems with natural gas is the environmental damage being caused (and covered up mostly) by settlements that have gag orders attached, which the damaged party just about had to agree too to save their lives.  For a good look at the problems of gas production go watch GASLAND 1 AND 2 . Gasland 2 shows a flight across the states showing gas production fields where wells are so crammed together  it looks a little like coal top mountain mining.

If you read the link you will see the improbability of their predictions and some realistic measures of what we can really get.  Remember please that the stated reserves of oil have been drastically overstated and I believe the gas estimates are even more wrong.

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  1. Anonymous Says:

    A must read article. Obviously natural gas as a replacement for oil is false hype.

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