IN WITH THE NEW! TIGER LOOKS AT 2010

MORE LIKELY – MORE OF THE SAME

Since 1980 we have been on ‘THE LONG SLIDE”, and we won’t get off the slide this year as I see it.  Here’s what I think the problem areas will be.

  • Retail Sales numbers for Christmas will be disappointing at best and probably more on the catastrophe level.
  • This will trigger the Commercial Real Estate failure that we have talked about for months.
  • The collapse of Commercial Real Estate will trigger National and local bank failures that the FDIC will have to go to Congress for more money to save the depositors funds.
  • Expect 4 million more homes to go into foreclosure , new home construction will fall more, meaning less jobs, less everything that new home sales generate.
  • There will be no rise in GDP (even if they say it does) we will not grow in 2010 in the normal sense of growth.
  • Unemployment will continue to rise.
  • Debt will be defaulted on by countries and by it’s citizens , this will include houses , credit card, car loans all will be just walked away from.  You can’t pay with money you don’t have.  Simple…
  • Inflation/Deflation= Would you believe both?  and that’s why we will be confused as to what is exactly going on.  Our houses will fall in value, while the items we use daily will rise , food, gas, oil, natural gas, medical care, dentists.  The government has been printing money as fast as they can but you have not seen a sign of the hyperinflation some are talking about, and you won’t till we shake out all the debt being destroyed by default.  When the bottom of debt is reached , then you will see hyperinflation.  (I’m not really sure about this because how can price pressure be put on things by people who have no money.
  • A NEW Currency- perhaps if we enter an hyperinflation period do to the dollars weakness or collapse a new currency (as Germany did) and withdraw to things we make here.
  • AN END OF FOREIGN WARS AND OCCUPATIONS- this will be forced on the government because we are broke and nobody will finance us any more.  This might be forced by a few more stupid attacks on additional countries . You pick your country of choice.  If this doesn’t destroy the world , it could bring about the end of at least our nonsense.
  • A WORLD FOOD CRISIS – Due to crop failures world wide, Soy beans in America, wheat in India and many , many more.  Which I think will force the farmers of the US back to growing real food instead of speciality crops.
  • WORLD ENERGY CRISIS- It’s still here  but is being muted somewhat by the world downturn.  There are lots of reasons it will return to be a huge problem.  Seems like the rest of the world is anticipating this by building new nukes, new solar, and other non oil energy sources, us , not so much..
  • BIG BANK FAILURES- The top ten will not be around much longer- when countries default of their derivative contracts the game is over.
  • IN CONCLUSION -2010 is not going to be fun.

A FINAL NOTE- WE HAVE BEEN HERE BEFORE AND WE WORKED OUR WAY THROUGH IT AND WE WILL DO IT AGAIN-WE WILL BUST OUT INTO A DIFFERENT WORLD THAT WILL NOT LOOK LIKE THIS ONE AND WE MIGHT BE SURPRISED WHAT A PLEASANT CHANGE IT IS.

A FOOTNOTE: THE DOW WILL BE CLOSER TO 4000 THAN 10000 THIS TIME NEXT YEAR…!!

HERE’S SOME OF THE LINKS I USED:

KUNSTLER

JOHN WILLIAMS

AMERICANS OPTIMISTIC

HAPPY TALK

ECONOMIST

BANKRUPT GOVERNMENTS

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